本周（2019.7.5-7.11）氯化銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)供應(ying)提升(sheng)，價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)部(bu)(bu)分小漲。供應(ying)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)聯(lian)堿裝置總體開(kai)(kai)工(gong)稍有(you)(you)(you)提升(sheng)，華東地(di)區(qu)大型聯(lian)堿裝置恢復(fu)滿(man)負荷，華北(bei)，西南地(di)區(qu)個別(bie)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)降(jiang)負荷或(huo)停(ting)產(chan)檢(jian)修，市場(chang)(chang)可(ke)供應(ying)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周有(you)(you)(you)所增加(jia)(jia)，在產(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)主要發(fa)前期(qi)預收(shou)訂單(dan)(dan)，待發(fa)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)大，部(bu)(bu)分企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)干(gan)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)轉產(chan)濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)。需(xu)求方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，秋季肥(fei)(fei)市場(chang)(chang)平穩(wen)(wen)推進(jin)(jin)，復(fu)合(he)肥(fei)(fei)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)采購(gou)積(ji)極性(xing)(xing)提升(sheng)，部(bu)(bu)分氯化銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)新(xin)單(dan)(dan)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)有(you)(you)(you)所上(shang)(shang)漲。現(xian)(xian)階段復(fu)合(he)肥(fei)(fei)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)讓利預收(shou)訂單(dan)(dan)，市場(chang)(chang)成(cheng)交氣氛升(sheng)溫，氯化銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)需(xu)求向好(hao)。價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，部(bu)(bu)分新(xin)單(dan)(dan)上(shang)(shang)調(diao)，但市場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)并未整體抬升(sheng)，成(cheng)交新(xin)單(dan)(dan)偏少，因此(ci)主流價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)以穩(wen)(wen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主。主流廠家(jia)(jia)出(chu)廠報價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)干(gan)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)730-750元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)左(zuo)右，濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)620-640元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)。濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)出(chu)貨(huo)較(jiao)好(hao)。現(xian)(xian)華東地(di)區(qu)報價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)干(gan)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)750元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)620-640元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，江蘇市場(chang)(chang)交投尚可(ke)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)預收(shou)訂單(dan)(dan)充足，西南地(di)區(qu)干(gan)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)740-750元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)參考650，華中干(gan)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)720-750/元(yuan)(yuan)噸(dun)，濕(shi)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)640元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)。復(fu)合(he)肥(fei)(fei)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)：秋季市場(chang)(chang)全(quan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)展開(kai)(kai)，供應(ying)商秋肥(fei)(fei)營銷(xiao)會(hui)議大面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)召開(kai)(kai)，政(zheng)策大多以正常出(chu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，打(da)款計(ji)息，提貨(huo)倉補為(wei)(wei)(wei)主，搭配限時(shi)限量(liang)(liang)爆品。經銷(xiao)商以保持安(an)全(quan)庫存為(wei)(wei)(wei)主，打(da)款積(ji)極性(xing)(xing)尚可(ke)，市場(chang)(chang)交投平穩(wen)(wen)推進(jin)(jin)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)能(neng)開(kai)(kai)工(gong)率較(jiao)前期(qi)小幅提升(sheng)。部(bu)(bu)分肥(fei)(fei)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)抓緊(jin)預收(shou)后市，計(ji)劃二次下調(diao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)以刺激需(xu)求，7月中旬部(bu)(bu)分前期(qi)停(ting)車企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)將(jiang)全(quan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)復(fu)工(gong)，短線內復(fu)合(he)肥(fei)(fei)大穩(wen)(wen)小調(diao)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主。純(chun)堿方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)：價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)穩(wen)(wen)，上(shang)(shang)游純(chun)堿廠家(jia)(jia)短期(qi)內生產(chan)穩(wen)(wen)定，現(xian)(xian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)低(di)(di)位，堿企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)不愿繼續(xu)降(jiang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)走量(liang)(liang)，外報售價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)趨穩(wen)(wen)運(yun)行；下游用戶及經銷(xiao)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)陸(lu)續(xu)簽(qian)(qian)(qian)單(dan)(dan)，當(dang)前低(di)(di)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)簽(qian)(qian)(qian)單(dan)(dan)量(liang)(liang)明顯(xian)增加(jia)(jia)，個別(bie)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)反饋(kui)大單(dan)(dan)增多，廠家(jia)(jia)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)有(you)(you)(you)鎖價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)營銷(xiao)，庫存量(liang)(liang)緩解(jie)中，降(jiang)勢(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)穩(wen)(wen)或(huo)對用戶簽(qian)(qian)(qian)單(dan)(dan)心態有(you)(you)(you)所影(ying)響，其價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)短期(qi)無(wu)(wu)較(jiao)大波瀾，整體行情(qing)整理運(yun)行。總體來看，氯化銨(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)市場(chang)(chang)利好(hao)逐步(bu)顯(xian)現(xian)(xian)，下游復(fu)合(he)肥(fei)(fei)開(kai)(kai)工(gong)回升(sheng)和(he)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)庫存仍處低(di)(di)位，加(jia)(jia)之(zhi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)待發(fa)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)多，出(chu)貨(huo)無(wu)(wu)壓力，有(you)(you)(you)挺價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)心態，但新(xin)單(dan)(dan)采購(gou)零星，市場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)區(qu)間暫未有(you)(you)(you)效上(shang)(shang)移。

       后市預(yu)測：氯化(hua)銨需求面因秋季用(yong)肥穩步向好，供應面部(bu)分聯堿裝置降負荷或有(you)檢修計劃，供應短(duan)期變(bian)化(hua)不大，氯化(hua)銨企業庫存低(di)位延續(xu)，待發量(liang)較充足，氯化(hua)銨企業看(kan)漲(zhang)心(xin)態較多(duo)，但氮肥市場整(zheng)(zheng)體偏弱，加(jia)之復合肥企讓利收(shou)單導致對高(gao)價(jia)原料采購謹慎將限制氯化(hua)銨價(jia)格漲(zhang)幅，短(duan)期看(kan)主流價(jia)格穩中偏強整(zheng)(zheng)理。