本周（2019.5.31-6.6）氯化(hua)銨(an)市場需求(qiu)(qiu)不旺，市場心態低迷(mi)，企業新(xin)單(dan)(dan)成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)疲軟，目前(qian)正值(zhi)國(guo)內麥收季節，終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)用肥(fei)(fei)量(liang)低迷(mi)，下游對(dui)氯化(hua)銨(an)采(cai)購(gou)(gou)節奏(zou)放緩(huan)，且目前(qian)氯化(hua)銨(an)企業開工(gong)仍居(ju)高位，市場供需寬松(song)的(de)局面(mian)(mian)持(chi)續。目前(qian)主流(liu)廠家出廠報(bao)價(jia)干(gan)(gan)銨(an)720-750元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸左右，濕(shi)銨(an)580-600元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸。新(xin)單(dan)(dan)成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)一(yi)般，短時庫(ku)存壓力(li)不大。現(xian)(xian)華(hua)東(dong)地區報(bao)價(jia)干(gan)(gan)銨(an)750元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，濕(shi)銨(an)580-600元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，江(jiang)蘇(su)市場交(jiao)投一(yi)般，西南(nan)地區干(gan)(gan)銨(an)750元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，濕(shi)銨(an)600元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，華(hua)中干(gan)(gan)銨(an)720元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，濕(shi)銨(an)600元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸。復合(he)肥(fei)(fei)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)： 復合(he)肥(fei)(fei)市場進入6月需求(qiu)(qiu)同(tong)比略微下降，終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)糧(liang)食(shi)價(jia)格(ge)低迷(mi)，降低農戶種糧(liang)積(ji)極性，水稻種植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)縮減，部(bu)分(fen)經濟作物飽和(he)，都對(dui)復合(he)肥(fei)(fei)需求(qiu)(qiu)提供利空(kong)支撐，部(bu)分(fen)地區采(cai)取停產應(ying)對(dui)，開工(gong)率下滑，供應(ying)自動調(diao)節至(zhi)新(xin)的(de)平衡點，受成(cheng)(cheng)本約束價(jia)格(ge)不會有太(tai)大波動，弱穩(wen)(wen)為主。純堿方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)：堿市場價(jia)格(ge)窄(zhai)幅震蕩下行為主。輕堿方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)，由(you)于市場成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)重心持(chi)續回(hui)落，下游終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)需求(qiu)(qiu)無增量(liang)的(de)背景下，節前(qian)中間商及終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)謹慎采(cai)購(gou)(gou)。重堿方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)，采(cai)購(gou)(gou)方(fang)(fang)(fang)保(bao)持(chi)觀望心態，后(hou)(hou)期(qi)價(jia)格(ge)多呈現(xian)(xian)下行走勢(shi)。長期(qi)來看，由(you)于江(jiang)蘇(su)實(shi)聯(lian)及山東(dong)海化(hua)節后(hou)(hou)停機(ji)檢修(xiu)，供應(ying)減量(liang)多將成(cheng)(cheng)為純堿企業穩(wen)(wen)價(jia)籌碼。

        后(hou)市(shi)(shi)(shi)預測：目前聯堿企(qi)業開工基本穩定，化肥市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)進入短期需求(qiu)淡季，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)供需面寬松(song)延續，氯化銨(an)價格(ge)易跌(die)難漲，預計下周(zhou)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)重心繼(ji)續下移。