（百川資訊）

一、原鹽市場一周評述

本周（2018.6.15-6.21）中國原(yuan)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)市場價格以(yi)穩為主，兩(liang)堿企業的檢修與(yu)復工同時進行，原(yuan)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的需(xu)(xu)求面變(bian)化不大，近期(qi)了解(jie)，湖北(bei)中鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)宏(hong)博下(xia)半年有(you)(you)復產計劃，工業鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)銷售主要在湖北(bei)、江(jiang)蘇、河南(nan)及江(jiang)西等地開展，但鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)產量初期(qi)有(you)(you)限，業內暫無(wu)明顯(xian)擔(dan)憂(you)。近期(qi)河南(nan)中鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)皓龍原(yuan)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)裝置有(you)(you)檢修安排，其(qi)他地區鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)廠運(yun)行正常，整體上看(kan)原(yuan)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)供需(xu)(xu)關系平穩。

二、地區市場價格分析

1、進口鹽價格：印度一級品CIF價格(ge)：33-35美(mei)元/噸；澳鹽CIF價格(ge)：38-45美(mei)元/噸。

2、海鹽方面：河北(bei)達(da)標海(hai)鹽(yan)(yan)含(han)稅出廠價格維(wei)持(chi)在180-200元/噸(dun)(dun)均(jun)有，山東達(da)標海(hai)鹽(yan)(yan)裸鹽(yan)(yan)提貨價格維(wei)持(chi)在165-175元/噸(dun)(dun)；東北(bei)達(da)標海(hai)鹽(yan)(yan)含(han)稅出廠價格多在220元/噸(dun)(dun)左右；華(hua)東礦鹵日(ri)曬(shai)鹽(yan)(yan)出廠含(han)稅價格在270-280元/噸(dun)(dun)。

3、井礦鹽方面：華東散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)含(han)(han)(han)稅價(jia)格在(zai)270-310元/噸，肥(fei)城、泰安地(di)區散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)含(han)(han)(han)稅出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)價(jia)格190-193元/噸；華中散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)含(han)(han)(han)稅價(jia)格在(zai)240-280元/噸；陜(shan)甘散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)含(han)(han)(han)稅價(jia)格在(zai)280-290元/噸；西(xi)南(nan)散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)含(han)(han)(han)稅價(jia)格在(zai)280-295元/噸；西(xi)南(nan)云(yun)貴地(di)區散濕(shi)(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠(chang)含(han)(han)(han)稅價(jia)格在(zai)350-375元/噸。

4、湖鹽方面：青(qing)(qing)海(hai)湖(hu)鹽(yan)含(han)稅出(chu)(chu)廠價格在60-80元/噸(dun)（散鹽(yan)），根據運距、品質，青(qing)(qing)海(hai)地區湖(hu)鹽(yan)出(chu)(chu)廠價格差別較大；內蒙古(gu)地區湖(hu)鹽(yan)含(han)稅出(chu)(chu)廠價格多(duo)穩定在160-170元/噸(dun)（散鹽(yan)），部分鹽(yan)廠優勢鹽(yan)含(han)稅出(chu)(chu)廠價格穩定在220-230元/噸(dun)（散鹽(yan)）。

5、下游采購價格：

a、華東兩堿的采購價格穩定：江(jiang)西省內大工(gong)(gong)(gong)業用鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)320-340元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）不等，兩(liang)堿(jian)用鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)到家價(jia)(jia)(jia)格集中在(zai)(zai)355-370元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；江(jiang)蘇大工(gong)(gong)(gong)業用井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)含稅(shui)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)270-280元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)），小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業用鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的含稅(shui)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)320-3250元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（50kg袋(dai)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)、干鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；安徽省大工(gong)(gong)(gong)業用井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)300-320元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)），兩(liang)堿(jian)用鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)到家價(jia)(jia)(jia)格集中在(zai)(zai)340-355元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)），省外江(jiang)蘇地區井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)送到安徽下(xia)游的價(jia)(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)335-345元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（散(san)(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)，濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；浙江(jiang)地區大工(gong)(gong)(gong)業用鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的到家價(jia)(jia)(jia)格多在(zai)(zai)320-340元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（含稅(shui)、濕(shi)(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）。

b、華中兩堿的采購價格穩定：河(he)南省大工業用井礦鹽(yan)(yan)含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)出(chu)廠價(jia)(jia)格(ge)235-255元(yuan)/噸(dun)（散(san)裝(zhuang)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)），小(xiao)工業鹽(yan)(yan)含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)出(chu)廠價(jia)(jia)格(ge)280-290元(yuan)/噸(dun)（50kg袋(dai)裝(zhuang)、干(gan)(gan)鹽(yan)(yan)）；湖(hu)南大工業用井礦鹽(yan)(yan)主流出(chu)廠價(jia)(jia)格(ge)320-325元(yuan)/噸(dun)（散(san)裝(zhuang)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)），小(xiao)工業用鹽(yan)(yan)含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)出(chu)廠價(jia)(jia)格(ge)350-355元(yuan)/噸(dun)（50kg袋(dai)裝(zhuang)、干(gan)(gan)鹽(yan)(yan)）；湖(hu)北地區大工業用井礦鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)廠含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)260-280元(yuan)/噸(dun)（散(san)裝(zhuang)，干(gan)(gan)鹽(yan)(yan)），部(bu)分工業用鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)廠含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在290-295元(yuan)/噸(dun)（噸(dun)袋(dai)裝(zhuang)，干(gan)(gan)鹽(yan)(yan)），小(xiao)工業鹽(yan)(yan)出(chu)廠含稅(shui)(shui)(shui)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)報(bao)300元(yuan)/噸(dun)（50kg包裝(zhuang)、干(gan)(gan)鹽(yan)(yan)）；

c、其他地區兩堿的采購價格穩定：四川省大(da)(da)工(gong)業用(yong)井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)含稅出廠(chang)(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)在280-290元/噸(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)），小(xiao)工(gong)業用(yong)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)含稅出廠(chang)(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)300-310元/噸(dun)（噸(dun)袋裝(zhuang)，干鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；重(zhong)慶地(di)區大(da)(da)工(gong)業用(yong)井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)含稅出廠(chang)(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)在290-320元/噸(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；福建地(di)區大(da)(da)工(gong)業用(yong)井礦鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的(de)(de)到(dao)家(jia)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)集中在460-470元/噸(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）；廣西(xi)當地(di)大(da)(da)工(gong)業用(yong)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的(de)(de)到(dao)家(jia)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)集中在460元/噸(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）附近；山(shan)西(xi)地(di)區大(da)(da)工(gong)業用(yong)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的(de)(de)到(dao)家(jia)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)多在370-380元/噸(dun)（散(san)(san)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)、濕(shi)鹽(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)）。

二、后市分析：

百川預測：兩堿整體開工負荷穩定(ding)，檢修(xiu)與(yu)復工同步進行，月末新(xin)一輪的原鹽采購訂價開啟，山(shan)西(xi)瑞恒、江西(xi)晶(jing)昊等新(xin)的兩堿裝(zhuang)置(zhi)投(tou)入生(sheng)產，原鹽需求(qiu)面(mian)有增量預(yu)期，而中(zhong)鹽皓龍、海鹽進入雨季等原鹽的供應減(jian)量預(yu)期，預(yu)計下周國內原鹽市場多延續平(ping)穩走(zou)勢(shi)。